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Dueling heat waves — across Texas and the South, and in the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains — are joining forces to deliver the hottest stretch of weather this year to the central Plains and parts of the Midwest.
The focus of extreme heat remains on Texas, as well as parts of surrounding states, after easing in the Pacific Northwest following the passage of a cold front. . On Friday, more than 65 million people were under heat alerts, including a large region centered on Missouri, where excessive heat watches are in effect Saturday into next week as temperatures are set to soar starting this weekend.
Through the weekend, the expanding pulse of a high-pressure heat dome parked over the southern tier overtakes most of the central portion of the Lower 48 with record and near-record strength at its center. It is just getting started.
“A major heatwave is expected across much of the Midwest and extending across the central and southern Plains through about [next] Thursday,” wrote the Weather Prediction Center in a Friday discussion.
Underneath the heat dome, dozens of daily high marks are at risk, and some monthly or all-time readings may fall as well, including in places that have already piled up heat records this summer.
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What extreme heat does to the body
The human body is remarkably resilient to heat, but the combination of heat and humidity (called the wet bulb temperature) can make it harder — or impossible — to cool down. Here’s what extreme heat does to the body, and how some parts of the world could become too hot for humans to survive.
Extreme heat kills more people in the United States than any other weather hazard.
When there’s a heat wave, there are precautions you can take. There are foods you can eat (and should avoid) to help keep cool. Here’s how to know if it’s too hot to exercise, or too hot to take your dog for a walk.
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Extreme heat to overtake Central U.S.
Thursday was the final day of extreme heat in the Northwest before a cold front passed.. Record temperatures have been common since Sunday in the region, including a monthly record of 108 in Portland. Many other daily records were set in Texas and surrounding areas.
Temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above normal take over the northern and central high Plains on Friday. Parts of Montana, the Dakotas, Wyoming, then southward into the central and southern Plains reach or surpass 100.
Rapid City in southwest South Dakota is forecast to reach 103 Friday, which would threaten a record for the date. Places just to its east may reach as high as 107 or so.
Persistent anomalous heat is likely to anchor in the central Plains and Midwest, and into the South and Southeast. Widespread temperatures over 100 degrees are probable this weekend from Nebraska and Missouri southward to the Gulf Coast.
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Most locations in Texas will threaten records Friday. Dallas is forecast to reach 110, which would be a new record for the date. Records are also at risk through the weekend, with highs of 108 to 110 into Monday. Austin is forecast to top out at 106, while Houston approaches 100.
On Saturday, about 4 dozen long-term sites can see record highs. Oklahoma City is forecast to reach 106 Saturday, with Wichita up to 107. To the south, New Orleans again threatens records as soon as Saturday, with a forecast high of 100 there.
Once the extreme heat takes hold, it won’t loosen its grip much or at all through the week. Temperatures near and above 100 continue through Thursday or Friday for many of the same locations.
Record highs should tend to focus on the Midwest and the South into midweek. Des Moines may be near a record high Tuesday, with a forecast of 101. On Wednesday, Minneapolis is expected to approach 100 as well.
Incredibly, even on a week-long average, weather models are suggesting that temperatures could run 15 degrees or more above average — punishing, unflinching heat.
Big heat, in widespread fashion
Following a short break of temperatures below 100 degrees in recent days, a high of 108 Thursday set a record for the date in Dallas. Waco also reached 108, a record there.
An excessive heat warning through Sunday could be extended given the forecast. Some good news for the region is that humidity might stay lower than it often is in midsummer. This means heat index values are close to the temperature or just above in most spots.
Salina, in northeast Kansas, could see at least a week of highs at or above 100 per most weather modeling, starting Saturday and running through at least Friday. If that happens, it would be the longest streak since 2012 there. The Weather Service is forecasting 108 there both Saturday and Sunday.
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“Models are outputting the warmest low-level temperatures in the 20-year model reanalysis for the weekend,” wrote the Weather Service in Omaha.
In the region near and north of northern Kansas into Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri, humidity levels may spike as well. This can be attributed in part to vast croplands, largely corn, adding moisture to the air via “corn sweat.” A wobbling frontal zone north of there also aids in pooling moisture.
In those areas, heat indexes could rise to 115 or even as high as 120 under the right conditions, almost daily in some spots, this weekend into next week.
By mid-to-late next week, widespread temperatures around 100 or higher are possible, from the same regions that see it in coming days all the way to the East Coast. An extended period of extreme heat may ultimately materialize from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast.
Migrating heat domes
Summer 2023 has featured extreme heat bouncing from place to place, while focusing fury on spots like the Desert Southwest and Gulf Coast.
This expansion of the heat dome may be the most wide-reaching of the summer. By early in the coming workweek, most of the Lower 48 is forecast to see temperatures well above normal, with the West being the one exception.
Above-normal temperatures look poised to persist through the rest of the month in most places.
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In the longer range, about 10 to 14 days or so away, the heat dome may eventually be squashed back southward a bit. That might not mean much or any relief to the hardest hit by heat such as Texas.
Persistence of high temperatures is a hallmark of climate change. Often whipped up by slow or stalled weather patterns, the incidents of relentless heat have been numerous in recent years across the globe. A strengthening El Niño, characterized by warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is also adding fuel in 2023.
More on extreme heat
Our warming climate: July was Earth’s hottest month, and here’s where the worst, record-setting heat occurred. Phoenix set a national heat wave record for the hottest month ever in a U.S. city. Here’s why the sweltering heat wave isn’t moving anytime soon. Use our tracker to see your city’s extreme heat risk. Take a look at what extreme heat does to the human body.
How to stay safe: It’s better to prepare for extreme heat before you’re in it. Here’s our guide to bracing for a heat wave, tips for staying cool even if you don’t have air conditioning, and what to know about animal safety during extreme heat. Traveling during a heat wave isn’t ideal, but here’s what to do if you are.
Understanding the science: Sprawling zones of high pressure called heat domes fuel heat waves. Here’s how they work. You can also read more about the link between weather disasters and climate change, and how leaders in the U.S. and Europe are responding to heat.
